Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b0d…9501 weather 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$455 (-9%) realized −$455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%29W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$146
14 days−$174
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$130
politics 16% −$79
world 16% −$126
tech 10% −$76
weather 10% −$78
crypto 7% −$55
finance 6% −$26
sports 4% −$8
economics 3% −$19
culture 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.3% -34.3% 0% 0% -31.0%
≤30d 58 -26.2% -33.2% 28% 28% -20.3%
≤90d 201 -17.6% -25.5% 14% 8% -20.5%
all 201 -17.6% -25.5% 14% 8% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 8% -20.5%
10% -32.6% 7% -28.1%
15% -39.1% 5% -35.0%
20% -45.1% 3% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses29 / 172
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage86d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 23 $66 −$31 -47%
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Jun 23 $67 −$47 -71%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam Jun 22 $61 $0 -1%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 20 $117 −$4 -4%
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? Jun 19 $152 −$55 -36%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 18 $154 −$8 -5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 12 $82 −$4 -4%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Jun 12 $81 −$9 -11%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $166 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $55 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $88 −$17 -19%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 07 $94 −$28 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL No 40¢ $35 1h
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY No 74¢ $66 1h
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 2h
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? BUY Yes 36¢ $67 2h
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam SELL No 86¢ $61 10h
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY No 86¢ $61 10h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL Yes 51¢ $113 2d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 52¢ $117 2d
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? SELL No 56¢ $24 3d
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? SELL No 53¢ $60 3d
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $13 3d
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $152 3d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 77¢ $146 4d
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 81¢ $154 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 8d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 8d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 8d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 695 history records