trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 36% | 0% | -11.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 36% | 0% | -11.8% |
| all | 24 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 54% | 0% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 0% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 0% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -34.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 20 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $113 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $116 | −$10 | -9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $37 | −$2 | -5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 07 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | May 27 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 26 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | May 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? | May 26 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | May 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | May 23 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Apr 07 | $8 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | -0% |