Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b0a…34ed other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$651 (-29%) realized −$647 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$137
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$80
politics 23% −$530
crypto 3% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -19.6%
all 17 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 47% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -43.8%
10% -24.8% 47% -49.2%
15% -32.1% 41% -54.1%
20% -38.7% 35% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$117 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$647
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage592d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $167 +$96 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 −$8 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $86 +$91 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$10 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$48 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$41 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $102 −$10 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$28 +50%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $530 −$530 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $92 47m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 60¢ $87 48m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 49m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 49m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $92 49m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 39¢ $91 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 32¢ $90 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $97 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $97 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $96 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $74 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $61 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $82 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $72 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $122 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $86 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $83 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $92 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 4d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $530 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.19 · official $221.19 (match) · 38 history records