Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b03…cc45
sports · 454 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$437 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$459 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized−$459
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses204 / 231
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions19
Markets (closed)435 / 454
History coverage61d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 19 History 435 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$21
14 days−$20
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 94¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+149%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 66¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 67¢ 84¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 43¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+132%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+113%)
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Giron 50¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+98%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Team Falcons 39¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 69¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 83¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 70¢ 73¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 64¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 32¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team - Game 2 Winner EXILE esports 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? Under 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of April? No 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$178
world 32% −$141
finance 5% −$108
crypto 3% −$1
politics 2% −$6
other 1% −$9
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $2 53m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $2 54m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 32¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) BUY Giron 50¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 84¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $2 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $2 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 37¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 94¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 86¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $2 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 53¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $2 11h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $2 11h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $2 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $2 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $2 19h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $2 20h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 22h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 26¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 47% -14.4%
≤30d 276 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 47% -12.1%
≤90d 435 -11.0% -19.5% 47% 41% -26.9%
all 435 -11.0% -19.5% 47% 41% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 41% -26.9%
10% -27.2% 37% -33.9%
15% -34.3% 36% -40.3%
20% -40.7% 31% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.59 · official $101.59 (match) · 1072 history records