Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8B 0x8b02…f3d9 sports 523 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$13,819 (+8%) realized +$13,530 · open +$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%259W / 251L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$316est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,994
7 days+$6,819
14 days+$6,793
30 days+$6,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$568
other 7% +$5,762
politics 7% +$7,892
finance 1% +$103
crypto 0% +$72
world 0% −$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +71.4% +55.1% 71% 71% +51.4%
≤30d 55 +62.1% +46.7% 67% 67% +48.4%
≤90d 161 +33.3% +20.6% 56% 52% +2.8%
all 510 +17.7% +6.5% 51% 49% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 49% -2.2%
10% -3.7% 48% -11.5%
15% -13.0% 47% -20.1%
20% -21.5% 46% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$291 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$2,288
Realized+$13,530
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses259 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$316
Open positions13
Markets (closed)510 / 523
History coverage591d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 65¢ $300 $415 +$115 (+38%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $200 $333 +$133 (+67%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $205 $217 +$11 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+5%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 100¢ $14 $43 +$29 (+203%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+54%)
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$241 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $444 −$438 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $295 +$275 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $929 +$941 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$166 +325%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 +$251 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$205 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $231 +$323 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $202 +$137 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $188 −$184 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$860 +420%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $212 −$209 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $206 −$205 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$214 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$36 -71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $305 −$31 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $250 −$248 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $203 +$227 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$309 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $163 +$425 +260%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +75%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Jun 12 $15 +$15 +101%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 Jun 12 $20 +$24 +119%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 Jun 12 $30 +$22 +73%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 Jun 12 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Jun 12 $57 +$48 +85%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 12 $81 +$86 +106%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 12 $184 +$37 +20%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 +$231 +226%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $84 +$347 +411%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $203 +$232 +114%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $82 +$362 +442%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 12 $203 +$260 +128%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $304 +$273 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $406 +$445 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 12 $507 +$422 +83%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 Jun 12 $508 +$492 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 12 $508 +$513 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 +$142 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $203 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $225 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $219 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 46¢ $66 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $203 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $102 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $102 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $254 43h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 31¢ $61 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $231 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $202 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $295 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $33 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $188 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,065 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,287.59 · official $2,287.62 (match) · 2195 history records