Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aff…3dd2 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 20% $0
culture 9% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -1.0% -10.5% 34% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage291d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $60 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Dec 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 14 $2 −$1 -22%
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Sep 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $17 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $17 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.45 · official $30.45 (match) · 134 history records