Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8afb…8e31
world · 73 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$31 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage519d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 25¢ 21¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 84¢ 81¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $74 −$4 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $22 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $72 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $53 −$4 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $74 −$11 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$22
other 25% −$10
sports 19% +$1
politics 11% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $9 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $19 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $19 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 12h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $23 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $23 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $4 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $19 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $25 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $1 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $6 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.6% 20% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 20 -6.3% -15.2% 20% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 63 +29.9% +17.6% 29% 3% -10.3%
all 71 +22.4% +10.7% 30% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 3% -10.6%
10% +0.1% 3% -19.2%
15% -9.6% 1% -27.0%
20% -18.4% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.22 · official $7.77 · 324 history records