Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8afa…28f0 sports 2133 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,150 (+5%) realized +$3,120 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%1092W / 1056L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$788est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,951
7 days+$178
14 days+$2,935
30 days+$3,874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$6,134
other 4% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 412 -40.6% -46.2% 31% 31% -8.1%
≤30d 943 -1.8% -11.1% 51% 51% +9.3%
≤90d 2148 -0.5% -10.0% 51% 51% -5.6%
all 2148 -0.5% -10.0% 51% 51% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 51% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 50% -14.6%
15% -26.4% 47% -22.9%
20% -33.7% 43% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$22 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$3,120
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses1092 / 1056
Est. fees paid−$788
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2148 / 2133
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 64¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+21%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 100¢ $30 $71 +$41 (+138%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 79¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners Under 40¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sonic Boom vs. Mobis Phoebus Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dundee FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Jaqueline Cristian vs Anastasia Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Charlotte 49ers vs. UAB Blazers: O/U 146.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: NJIT Highlanders (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 251.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clermont Foot 63 win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Alabama State Hornets (W) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern Wildcats Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks: O/U 160.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Cl Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Stars vs. Penguins Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Hofstra Pride Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Suns vs. Nets Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Duke Blue Devils (W) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Bucks Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-8.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Brown Bears (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $52 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $49 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $39 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $36 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 41¢ $40 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $43 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 74¢ $91 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 6h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 72¢ $91 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $91 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $47 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 52¢ $39 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $37 9h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 56¢ $8 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $91 10h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $25 10h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $34 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 52¢ $15 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $13 13h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 54¢ $44 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 57¢ $57 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 47¢ $38 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 55¢ $17 15h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 40¢ $26 15h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 55¢ $7 16h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 50¢ $38 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.91 · official $245.31 · 3500 history records