Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8af9…3962 crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+23%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$40
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$25
other 22% +$11
sports 15% +$57
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +10.3% -0.2% 38% 37% +10.5%
≤30d 83 +9.7% -0.7% 39% 37% +10.2%
≤90d 83 +9.7% -0.7% 39% 37% +10.2%
all 83 +9.7% -0.7% 39% 37% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 37% +10.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 35% -0.3%
15% -18.9% 29% -10.0%
20% -26.9% 27% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$27 +1290%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$49 +824%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$9 +139%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6m
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $13 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.15 · official $10.00 (match) · 180 history records