Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8af5…f106 crypto 39 markets active 4h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$24
other 12% +$6
sports 9% −$11
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% -19.4%
≤30d 38 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% -19.4%
≤90d 38 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% -19.4%
all 38 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 29% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 29% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 26% -27.1%
15% -33.7% 21% -34.2%
20% -40.2% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$5 +80%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1115%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$15 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $13 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.45 · official $4.45 (match) · 95 history records