Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8A 0x8af5…c2b7 other 35 markets active 3h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%34W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day7.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit49%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	34	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	34	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	34	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	34	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.4%	0%	-9.4%
10%	-18.1%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-26.0%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-33.3%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses34 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)34 / 35

History coverage5d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day7.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 34 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
João Félix: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
João Félix: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria?	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)	Jun 23	$50	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22?	Jun 22	$50	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22?	Jun 22	$50	$0	+0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Jun 22	$50	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$50	$0	+0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S	Jun 21	$50	$0	+0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	Jun 20	$50	$0	+0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$50	$0	+0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$50	$0	+0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$50	$0	+0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$50	$0	+0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	Jun 19	$50	$0	+0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of th	Jun 18	$25	$0	+0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 18	$50	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY No	100¢	$50	2h
João Félix: 2+ goals	BUY No	100¢	$50	3h
João Félix: 1+ goals	BUY No	100¢	$50	3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova	BUY Hayu Kinoshita	100¢	$50	4h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz	BUY KT Wiz	100¢	$50	10h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria?	BUY No	100¢	$50	17h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)	BUY Kansas City Royals	100¢	$50	21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22?	BUY No	100¢	$50	24h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22?	BUY No	100¢	$50	24h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	100¢	$50	46h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	100¢	$50	46h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY No	100¢	$50	2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	100¢	$50	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	100¢	$50	2d
Alex Baena: 1+ goals	BUY No	100¢	$50	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5	BUY Under	100¢	$50	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	100¢	$50	2d
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S	BUY Crazy Raccoon	100¢	$4	2d
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S	BUY Crazy Raccoon	100¢	$16	2d
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S	BUY Crazy Raccoon	100¢	$27	2d
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S	BUY Crazy Raccoon	100¢	$3	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5	BUY Over	100¢	$50	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	100¢	$50	3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY No	100¢	$50	3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY No	100¢	$50	3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$50	3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	100¢	$50	3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche	BUY Luca Van Assche	100¢	$50	3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$50	3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY No	100¢	$50	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 72 history records