Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8af5…4bba sports 893 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$676 (-1%) realized −$675 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%400W / 474L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$427est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$403
14 days+$2,018
30 days+$2,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$213
crypto 13% +$294
other 12% −$930
world 1% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +23.7% +12.0% 51% 44% +3.2%
≤30d 263 +3.3% -6.5% 46% 40% +0.4%
≤90d 504 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 38% -9.2%
all 874 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 34% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 34% -10.7%
10% -20.5% 31% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 29% -27.1%
20% -35.2% 25% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$41 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$675
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses400 / 474
Est. fees paid−$427
Open positions4
Markets (closed)874 / 893
History coverage178d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 72¢ 72¢ $218 $220 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 313 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $59 +$278 +473%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $150 −$149 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $78 +$89 +114%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $59 −$58 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $120 −$119 -99%
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 3 - 2 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -98%
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S Jun 28 $147 +$54 +37%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro Leagu Jun 27 $3 +$15 +596%
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu Jun 27 $101 +$11 +11%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Gr Jun 27 $124 −$124 -100%
Honor of Kings: Qing Jiu Club vs TC Grouping (BO5) - KPL Growth League Jun 27 $157 +$68 +43%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 AND Norway v Jun 27 $48 +$110 +228%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Sta Jun 26 $127 +$166 +131%
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 26 $91 −$91 -100%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Jun 26 $44 +$7 +16%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G Jun 25 $9 +$4 +43%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Douyu Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Gr Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Game Handicap: WB (-2.5) vs Royal Never Give Up (+2.5) Jun 25 $116 +$94 +81%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Royal Never Give Up (+1.5) Jun 25 $250 +$49 +20%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro L Jun 25 $232 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Honor of Kings: Rogue Warriors vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Lea Jun 24 $95 +$10 +10%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu Jun 24 $40 −$7 -18%
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 24 $30 +$182 +613%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $50 +$70 +138%
Honor of Kings: JLY vs LT Gaming (BO5) - KPL Growth League Group Stage Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Honor of Kings: Titan King's Legion vs JA Gaming (BO5) - KPL Growth Le Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Honor of Kings: WanZhen Esports Club vs TC Grouping (BO5) - KPL Growth Jun 23 $170 +$126 +74%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $55 +$20 +36%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 +$24 +78%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $500 +$48 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $355 +$182 +51%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $354 +$44 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $97 +$128 +132%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 21 $105 +$38 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $220 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $336 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 17¢ $59 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $150 6h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $167 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $78 16h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 16h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $59 33h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $120 33h
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 3 - 2 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 37h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S SELL Weibo Gaming 100¢ $201 38h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY Weibo Gaming 66¢ $5 39h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY Weibo Gaming 70¢ $51 39h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY Weibo Gaming 70¢ $47 39h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY Weibo Gaming 80¢ $35 39h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY Weibo Gaming 91¢ $9 39h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY 6¢ $18 47h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Rogue Warriors 14¢ $3 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both BUY 21¢ $110 2d
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu SELL Kuaishou Gaming 99¢ $71 2d
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu SELL Kuaishou Gaming 99¢ $41 2d
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Kuaishou Gaming 90¢ $93 2d
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Kuaishou Gaming 83¢ $8 2d
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Gr BUY Team WE 30¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.30 · official $334.55 (match) · 2913 history records