Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8af5…6b59 crypto 990 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$740 (+14%) realized +$740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%522W / 809L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day167.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$633
7 days−$500
14 days−$459
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 845 -37.3% -43.3% 31% 29% -26.0%
≤30d 1331 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 34% -17.2%
≤90d 1331 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 34% -17.2%
all 1331 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 34% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 34% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 29% -25.1%
15% -42.3% 24% -32.4%
20% -47.9% 16% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses522 / 809
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1331 / 990
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day167.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1331 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records