Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8af3…39a0 politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1
other 25% −$1
sports 17% −$2
crypto 8% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage142d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Feb 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 11 $89 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 12h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $84 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $84 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 24d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 25d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $84 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 44d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $85 47d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $85 48d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 51d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 52d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 52d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 52d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 71d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $86 76d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $86 77d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 79d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 79d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 82d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 82d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $86 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records