Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aef…29d7 world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$6
other 19% −$2
politics 17% +$1
sports 15% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 4% -9.8%
all 99 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 68
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage319d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $13 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $3 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $60 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $50 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $10 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $32 −$4 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $31 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $24 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $24 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $19 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $19 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.55 · official $26.55 (match) · 366 history records