Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ae9…7169 world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
politics 19% $0
other 15% −$1
sports 13% −$12
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 65 -1.6% -10.9% 29% 2% -9.7%
all 66 -3.0% -12.3% 29% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage490d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 82¢ 80¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $137 +$5 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $47 −$7 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $238 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $55 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $67 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $101 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $40 −$3 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $13 +$1 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $78 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $22 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $17 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.42 (match) · 295 history records