Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8A 0x8ae9…420a other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,812 (-70%) realized −$5,855 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$750per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$202
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$3,649
politics 22% −$1,818
sports 15% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 60% -19.9%
≤30d 8 +21.8% +10.2% 62% 62% -11.1%
≤90d 8 +21.8% +10.2% 62% 62% -11.1%
all 10 -2.6% -11.8% 50% 50% -76.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -76.7%
10% -20.3% 50% -79.0%
15% -28.0% 30% -81.0%
20% -35.0% 30% -82.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$1,321 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$5,855
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage526d
Avg bet$750
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $99 $142 +$43 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $967 −$659 -68%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $116 +$26 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $164 +$248 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $750 +$214 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 +$164 +165%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $1,819 −$1,818 -100%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 16 $3,997 −$3,997 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $459 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $245 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 72¢ $143 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 75¢ $298 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $411 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $164 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $964 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $509 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $239 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.44 · official $142.44 (match) · 44 history records