Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8ae7…cc66
other · 10 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$16 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$109
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage33d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 4 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$54 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$5
crypto 9% −$20
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $49 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤90d 6 -65.1% -68.4% 17% 17% -21.1%
all 6 -65.1% -68.4% 17% 17% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.4% 17% -21.1%
10% -71.4% 17% -28.7%
15% -74.2% 17% -35.5%
20% -76.7% 17% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.36 · official $109.36 (match) · 15 history records