Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8ae5…d13a other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$25
politics 30% −$14
sports 4% −$14
economics 3% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 -3.3% -12.5% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 128 -4.8% -13.9% 5% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage119d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $331 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $279 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $293 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,377 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $257 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $213 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $261 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $17 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $8 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.77 · official $75.77 (match) · 421 history records