Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ae5…7db6 crypto 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,667 (-9%) realized −$2,186 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%227W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day344.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$518
7 days−$2,186
14 days−$2,186
30 days−$2,186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,052
other 1% −$91
sports 1% −$49
weather 0% +$1
world 0% −$5
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 40% -20.5%
≤30d 374 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 40% -20.5%
≤90d 374 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 40% -20.5%
all 374 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 40% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover344.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 40% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 21% -28.1%
15% -34.1% 13% -35.0%
20% -40.5% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$31 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$2,186
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses227 / 147
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)374 / 386
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day344.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 77¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 86¢ 83¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Up 56¢ 81¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? No 79¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 23¢ $8 $2 −$5 (-71%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Yes 75¢ 26¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Yes 47¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $263 $0 −$263 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $176 −$98 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $127 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $118 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $24 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $28 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $117 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $24 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.66 · official $74.45 (match) · 1835 history records