Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ae3…3c15 sports 860 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,991 (-8%) realized −$15,880 · open −$111
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%415W / 437L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1,317est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$15
14 days−$100
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$15,351
other 15% −$1,343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.7% -13.7% 44% 44% -10.0%
≤30d 28 -28.3% -35.1% 32% 32% -21.7%
≤90d 407 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 42% -20.3%
all 852 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 46% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 46% -16.7%
10% -27.8% 41% -24.7%
15% -34.8% 33% -31.9%
20% -41.2% 25% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$167 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$15,880
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses415 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,317
Open positions4
Markets (closed)852 / 860
History coverage148d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 66¢ 68¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Ethan Quinn 40¢ 32¢ $150 $118 −$32 (-21%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 44¢ 44¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Humbert 50¢ 28¢ $200 $115 −$85 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 27 $241 +$78 +32%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $202 −$200 -99%
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero Jun 26 $152 +$82 +54%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 26 $204 +$206 +101%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $101 −$5 -5%
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) Jun 26 $91 −$90 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $218 −$21 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $133 −$130 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $127 −$125 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $203 +$161 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $153 +$311 +203%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $163 +$132 +81%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $97 +$117 +121%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $86 −$85 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $119 −$117 -99%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5) May 31 $22 −$22 -98%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Kalinina/Yastremska vs Danilina/Krunic May 31 $29 −$7 -23%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter May 31 $51 −$22 -43%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $48 −$47 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $63 +$36 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $71 −$70 -98%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) May 30 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $40 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 26 $229 −$226 -99%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-2.5) vs Prado (+2.5) May 26 $134 −$131 -98%
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Tjen (+1.5) May 26 $181 +$161 +89%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $197 +$26 +13%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $152 +$94 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 25 $121 −$119 -98%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Pellegrino (+1.5) May 25 $162 +$104 +64%
Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron May 25 $337 −$195 -58%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $197 +$164 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $170 +$27 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa May 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson May 25 $203 −$17 -8%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) May 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean May 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $202 +$82 +40%
Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Herbert (+1.5) May 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Bejlek vs Sloane Stephens May 24 $202 +$97 +48%
Set Handicap: Prizmic (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5) May 24 $92 +$101 +109%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $497 +$76 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 40¢ $153 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 44¢ $117 1h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) SELL Keys 73¢ $319 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 42¢ $170 4h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Humbert 50¢ $203 4h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Keys 53¢ $152 4h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Keys 55¢ $89 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $202 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 59¢ $202 7h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero SELL Luciana Moyano 84¢ $234 16h
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero BUY Luciana Moyano 54¢ $152 17h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL 80¢ $409 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert AND Will France win BUY 46¢ $99 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 63¢ $96 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 65¢ $101 22h
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) BUY Draper 45¢ $91 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $197 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova AND Lexus Eastbour BUY 44¢ $200 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $133 42h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 45¢ $127 45h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY 39¢ $204 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 55¢ $203 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 53¢ $203 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24 BUY 40¢ $204 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $218 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $322 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $202 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 76¢ $295 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 32¢ $153 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.72 · official $777.09 · 2008 history records