Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8adf…ade7 sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%39W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$24
other 4% −$15
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 54% -8.9%
≤30d 68 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 54% -8.9%
≤90d 68 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 54% -8.9%
all 68 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 54% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 54% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 38% -17.6%
15% -29.4% 18% -25.6%
20% -36.3% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses39 / 29
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 87¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Joao Lucas Da Silva 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 +$2 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $22 +$11 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $56 +$14 +25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 +$7 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$38 -76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$25 -84%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$4 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +113%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$9 +23%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $60 +$10 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$8 -53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $20 17m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 17m
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 57¢ $5 20m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 70¢ $5 23m
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 71¢ $10 23m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $5 23m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 28m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 28m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 29m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $11 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $16 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $12 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $3 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $0 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $30 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.18 · official $54.18 (match) · 209 history records