Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8adf…7401 crypto 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%214W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 4% -7.7%
≤30d 230 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 230 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 7% -9.5%
all 230 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses214 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage21d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 460 history records