Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8adf…48cd weather 508 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51,128 (-15%) realized −$50,280 · open −$848
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%459W / 45L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$661per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11,937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% +$7,074
other 25% −$642
crypto 25% −$2,516
world 13% −$3,465
sports 4% −$3,883
politics 1% +$39
economics 0% +$9
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.5% -72.4% 0% 0% -39.4%
≤30d 15 -10.1% -18.6% 80% 13% -19.7%
≤90d 504 -3.3% -12.5% 91% 3% -10.2%
all 504 -3.3% -12.5% 91% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 1% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$372 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$11,937
Realized−$50,280
Unrealized−$848
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses459 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions17
Markets (closed)504 / 508
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$661
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 92¢ 83¢ $8,127 $7,301 −$825 (-10%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $3,309 $3,284 −$25 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $470 $468 −$2 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $280 $262 −$18 (-6%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 83¢ 95¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 76¢ 94¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+23%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $3,165 −$3,165 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11,414 −$974 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18,320 +$12 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $960 +$38 +4%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $950 +$50 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,517 +$45 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 +$1 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $257 +$8 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,084 +$116 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $1,468 +$32 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 25 $765 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $1,742 +$58 +3%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stag May 21 $395 +$10 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 21 $977 +$51 +5%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? May 21 $1,674 +$3 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 17 $1,741 −$56 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,243 −$105 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 16 May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 54-55°F on May May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2 May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 May 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on May May 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of May 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2 May 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 May 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 May 16 $95 $0 +0%
Valencia: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Adolfo Vallejo May 16 $82 +$18 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $391 +$4 +1%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 16 $3,181 +$41 +1%
Zagreb: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Lukas Neumayer May 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $317 +$8 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 13 $149 +$1 +1%
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? May 12 $945 −$18 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3AM ET May 11 $783 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 11 $4,058 +$42 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,344 2h
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 87¢ $1,710 3h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,487 3d
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 92¢ $9,964 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,970 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,137 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $780 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $369 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $68 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $106 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $100 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $100 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $22 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $150 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $271 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $900 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $87 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $119 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $155 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.