Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8adc…7a1b sports 458 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,216 (+3%) realized +$1,290 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%114W / 342L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$15
14 days+$66
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,527
other 16% +$190
world 3% −$1,539
finance 1% +$17
crypto 1% −$249
politics 1% −$4
economics 1% −$183
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -60.3% -64.1% 8% 8% -9.1%
≤30d 103 -19.2% -26.9% 21% 21% -9.5%
≤90d 276 +7.0% -3.2% 25% 25% +3.4%
all 456 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 25% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 25% -7.8%
10% -20.5% 24% -16.7%
15% -28.2% 23% -24.7%
20% -35.3% 21% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$92 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,290
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses114 / 342
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions1
Markets (closed)456 / 458
History coverage529d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,018 +$955 +94%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $128 −$125 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $127 −$124 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $154 +$1,134 +735%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$78 -76%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $77 +$19 +24%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $77 +$860 +1116%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $77 +$201 +262%
Will Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 05 $77 −$75 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $77 −$75 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $102 +$62 +61%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $153 +$278 +182%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $206 +$183 +89%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $558 +$479 +86%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lola Radivojevic vs Martha Matoula May 30 $306 −$299 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $77 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 3¢ $77 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,083 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $891 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $128 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY 10¢ $77 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 25h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 25h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $77 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $204 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 30h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $77 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $77 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 2¢ $77 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 4d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $77 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $77 5d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $77 6d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $1.12 (match) · 997 history records