Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8A 0x8adc…bafc sports 459 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53,642 (-7%) realized −$54,969 · open +$1,327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%217W / 215L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,784per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$7,898est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$29,656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$2,816
14 days+$21,295
30 days−$23,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$67,849
other 6% +$5,246
world 1% −$5,300
crypto 0% +$501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -5.2% -14.3% 52% 51% -12.4%
≤30d 169 -13.5% -21.8% 49% 47% -17.4%
≤90d 432 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 49% -17.4%
all 432 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 49% -17.4%
10% -25.9% 44% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.1% 39% -32.5%
20% -39.7% 30% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,161) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,205 vs −$1,573 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$29,656
Realized−$54,969
Unrealized+$1,327
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses217 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$7,898
Open positions27
Markets (closed)432 / 459
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$1,784
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $4,060 $4,375 +$315 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3,220 $3,950 +$730 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,221 $2,731 −$490 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2,220 $2,510 +$290 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1,760 $2,350 +$590 (+34%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $1,560 $1,470 −$90 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1,940 $1,370 −$570 (-29%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $1,310 $1,274 −$35 (-3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $1,065 $1,267 +$202 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $975 $1,162 +$187 (+19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1,245 $892 −$352 (-28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $204 $713 +$509 (+250%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $670 $675 +$5 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $670 $675 +$5 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $390 $575 +$185 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $560 $535 −$25 (-4%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $610 $500 −$110 (-18%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 74¢ $370 $372 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $225 $321 +$96 (+43%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $315 $317 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $255 $292 +$37 (+15%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 54¢ $265 $268 +$2 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $260 $245 −$15 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $315 $232 −$82 (-26%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $270 $218 −$52 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,350 +$1,650 +49%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $37 +$38 +104%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $820 +$1,180 +144%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $170 −$170 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $660 −$660 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $510 −$510 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 21 $795 −$795 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $810 −$810 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $955 −$955 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 21 $587 −$587 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $980 −$980 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,980 +$1,020 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,320 +$680 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $270 +$243 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,076 +$786 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $690 +$310 +45%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $300 +$200 +67%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $350 +$150 +43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $285 +$215 +75%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $730 +$270 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $560 +$440 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,820 +$1,180 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $470 +$530 +113%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,167 +$1,133 +97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $520 +$480 +92%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $930 +$570 +61%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $1,586 +$1,014 +64%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $755 +$1,111 +147%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $800 −$800 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $410 +$663 +162%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $824 +$800 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,260 +$740 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,050 +$450 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $486 −$486 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,180 +$820 +70%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1,124 −$1,124 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,980 +$1,020 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $2,331 +$1,369 +59%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $716 +$745 +104%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $375 −$375 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $552 −$552 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $238 34m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $37 34m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $40 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $670 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $269 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $373 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $670 2h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $31 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $4 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $773 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,656.10 · official $29,657.60 (match) · 3500 history records