Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8adb…9e1d weather 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-11%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.3% -21.6% 0% 0% -22.6%
≤30d 18 -13.3% -21.6% 0% 0% -22.6%
≤90d 18 -13.3% -21.6% 0% 0% -22.6%
all 18 -13.3% -21.6% 0% 0% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -22.6%
10% -29.1% 0% -30.0%
15% -35.9% 0% -36.8%
20% -42.2% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $78 −$7 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $26 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $33 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $18 −$7 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $51 −$17 -33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $52 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $33 −$15 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 51m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 42¢ $20 55m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 45¢ $22 55m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 42¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 51¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 57¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 58¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 53¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 14¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 26¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $18 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 37h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 52¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $25 40h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $28 40h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 41¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records