Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8adb…e4f6 sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (255 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25,432 (-16%) realized −$28,360 · open +$2,928
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%95W / 83L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day255.3pace
Fees−$1,721est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$14,171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$656
other 9% −$482
world 7% −$2,273
politics 2% +$634
finance 0% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (255 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -19.8% -27.5% 43% 43% -29.9%
≤30d 178 +8.3% -2.0% 53% 52% -12.7%
≤90d 178 +8.3% -2.0% 53% 52% -12.7%
all 178 +8.3% -2.0% 53% 52% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover255.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 52% -12.7%
10% -11.4% 49% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here -19.9% 44% -28.7%
20% -27.8% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$704 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$14,171
Realized−$28,360
Unrealized+$2,928
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses95 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,721
Open positions13
Markets (closed)178 / 189
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$861
Trades / day255.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 34¢ 66¢ $2,913 $5,613 +$2,699 (+93%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 86¢ $2,910 $3,825 +$915 (+31%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 59¢ 63¢ $1,109 $1,177 +$68 (+6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $1,000 $1,170 +$170 (+17%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 24¢ 95¢ $214 $832 +$618 (+289%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $673 $503 −$170 (-25%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $900 $500 −$400 (-44%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $83 $39 −$44 (-53%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 56¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 44¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 0¢ $570 $1 −$569 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs GenOne 36¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $393 −$390 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,320 +$360 +27%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $403 +$548 +136%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $758 +$86 +11%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $1,387 −$1,367 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $612 +$388 +63%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,870 +$1,630 +87%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $550 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $907 −$907 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $563 +$442 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $506 −$500 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $624 +$492 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $1,036 −$1,022 -99%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $1,019 −$523 -51%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $308 +$91 +30%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $430 −$430 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $1,783 −$1,777 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $435 −$435 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $507 +$454 +90%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $770 +$1,230 +160%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $801 +$1,277 +160%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $601 −$600 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $384 −$80 -21%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2,610 −$2,610 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $350 +$650 +186%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $7,216 −$38 -0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $640 −$640 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $714 −$714 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $440 +$360 +82%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,250 +$566 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $960 −$960 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,059 +$537 +51%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $750 +$250 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,680 −$1,540 -92%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $470 −$470 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $540 +$460 +85%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,926 +$1,079 +56%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $936 +$374 +40%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $900 −$900 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,919 −$1,899 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,122 −$1,112 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $2,250 +$750 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $560 +$440 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,330 +$1,170 +88%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $677 −$670 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $2,971 1h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY GenOne 36¢ $183 3h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY GenOne 36¢ $183 3h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Walczaki 43¢ $203 3h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Walczaki 38¢ $188 3h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Walczaki 38¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Walczaki 38¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $1,549 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $34 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $4 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $9 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $9 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $74 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $503 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 97¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 66¢ $385 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 54¢ $264 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 54¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $304 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1,146 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $41 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $17 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $53 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $41 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,170.81 · official $13,914.41 · 3500 history records