Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8A 0x8ad6…34c6 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover

✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$183 (+3%) realized +$188 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate39%13W / 20L

Drawdown86%max

Avg bet$160per market

Trades / day71.4pace

Fees−$121est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)+25.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	33	+38.6%	+25.4%	39%	39%	+1.6%
≤30d	33	+38.6%	+25.4%	39%	39%	+1.6%
≤90d	33	+38.6%	+25.4%	39%	39%	+1.6%
all	33	+38.6%	+25.4%	39%	39%	+1.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover71.4 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+25.4%	39%	+1.6%
10% ← realistic here	+13.4%	39%	-8.1%
15%	+2.5%	39%	-17.0%
20%	-7.6%	39%	-25.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +82% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$234 vs −$120 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$375

Realized+$188

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses13 / 20

Est. fees paid−$121

Open positions2

Markets (closed)33 / 35

History coverage2d

Avg bet$160

Trades / day71.4

Drawdown86%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 33 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Under	47¢	46¢	$235	$227	−$7 (-3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	29¢	30¢	$145	$147	+$2 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$533	−$50	-9%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$36	−$36	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$45	−$45	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$60	−$60	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$75	−$75	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$204	−$200	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$265	+$193	+73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$110	−$108	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$116	+$167	+143%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$2	+$14	+567%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$490	+$510	+104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$105	+$195	+186%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$111	−$111	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$264	−$264	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$303	−$303	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$469	−$469	-100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$956	+$1,168	+122%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$60	+$140	+233%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$15	+$85	+567%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$20	+$80	+400%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$56	−$56	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$108	−$108	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$204	−$204	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$35	−$35	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$90	−$90	-100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 16	$80	−$80	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$6	+$18	+300%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$21	+$31	+150%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$40	−$40	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$110	+$190	+173%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$150	+$250	+167%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$21	33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$9	34m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$24	38m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$8	38m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$1	38m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$41	38m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$2	38m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$0	39m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$17	39m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$9	39m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$10	40m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$4	40m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$4	40m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$54	41m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$1	41m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	47¢	$138	42m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$10	42m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$2	43m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$20	46m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	29¢	$4	50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$204	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	96¢	$192	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	89¢	$129	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	90¢	$77	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	87¢	$26	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	87¢	$5	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	87¢	$2	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	87¢	$1	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	87¢	$27	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	21¢	$110	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.99 · official $364.99 · 208 history records