Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8ad3…e651
weather · 431 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$362 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open −$225
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$985
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses244 / 129
Open positions58
Markets (closed)373 / 431
History coverage14d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 58 History 373 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$233
14 days+$30
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 85¢ 95¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 85¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? No 80¢ 85¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 85¢ 88¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 85¢ 83¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 86¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 89¢ 84¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 89¢ 83¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? No 86¢ 80¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? No 68¢ 42¢ $40 $25 −$15 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 72¢ 90¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 89¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 89¢ 93¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? No 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 89¢ 59¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 62¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$63 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$12 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$23 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$52 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$62 +297%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $11 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $11 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $11 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $8 7m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 13m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $14 37m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 37m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 37m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $11 37m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $13 39m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $13 39m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $12 59m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +13.8% +2.9% 83% 77% +3.8%
≤30d 373 -3.0% -12.3% 65% 54% -11.1%
≤90d 373 -3.0% -12.3% 65% 54% -11.1%
all 373 -3.0% -12.3% 65% 54% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 54% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 17% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 10% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $984.63 · official $984.63 (match) · 1606 history records