Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8ad2…9f42 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%38W / 10L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$2
other 11% $0
economics 7% −$1
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 48 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses38 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage500d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 03 $54 $0 +1%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $8 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $21 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Mar 15 $39 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 08 $31 $0 -1%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Feb 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Feb 15 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $58 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $43 123d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 148d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 150d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $53 182d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 212d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 99¢ $47 243d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 274d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $33 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 396d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $3 423d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $4 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.43 · official $74.43 (match) · 107 history records