Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ad2…c7c0 crypto 1525 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$390 (-8%) realized −$390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%1044W / 786L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day135.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$91
other 2% +$8
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 664 -59.7% -63.5% 32% 27% -64.0%
≤30d 1830 -16.9% -24.8% 57% 52% -42.7%
≤90d 1830 -16.9% -24.8% 57% 52% -42.7%
all 1830 -16.9% -24.8% 57% 52% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 52% -42.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 31% -48.2%
15% -38.6% 13% -53.2%
20% -44.6% 4% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1044 / 786
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1830 / 1525
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day135.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1830 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 43¢ $1 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 42¢ $1 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 16¢ $1 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 29¢ $2 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $1 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 33¢ $1 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records