Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8ad1…bfef
other · 55 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$56
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage460d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +67%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 19 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 10 $2 +$3 +135%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 05 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$6
politics 18% $0
other 17% $0
sports 12% −$1
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% +$3
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $4 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $18 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $9 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $10 32h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $25 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $29 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $41 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $6 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +6.8% -3.3% 60% 10% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +6.8% -3.3% 60% 10% -9.0%
all 54 +3.2% -6.6% 46% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 7% -9.0%
10% -15.5% 7% -17.7%
15% -23.7% 6% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.35 · official $56.35 (match) · 183 history records