Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ace…6069 sports 376 markets active 2d ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,175 (+6%) realized +$9,330 · open −$155
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%178W / 193L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$287est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$403
14 days−$537
30 days−$4,464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$7,185
other 22% +$9,572
culture 14% +$4,925
world 13% +$1,565
finance 1% +$174
politics 1% −$120
crypto 0% +$94
tech 0% −$24
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.9% -24.8% 50% 50% -43.4%
≤30d 37 -16.6% -24.5% 49% 41% -42.1%
≤90d 196 -23.3% -30.6% 44% 34% -11.6%
all 371 -14.2% -22.3% 48% 38% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 38% -3.6%
10% -29.8% 29% -12.8%
15% -36.5% 21% -21.3%
20% -42.8% 16% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$199 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$2,461
Realized+$9,330
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses178 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$287
Open positions5
Markets (closed)371 / 376
History coverage523d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday 93¢ 89¢ $1,713 $1,630 −$83 (-5%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $813 $775 −$37 (-5%)
Will Carolina Royal Ravens finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 95¢ 52¢ $45 $25 −$20 (-45%)
Will Boston Breach finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 96¢ 59¢ $28 $17 −$11 (-38%)
Will Cloud9 New York finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 97¢ 74¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $675 −$673 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $406 +$269 +66%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty Jun 07 $368 −$364 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $284 +$83 +29%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $201 +$58 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $203 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $284 +$239 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $51 +$49 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,940 −$2,890 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 31 $124 −$14 -12%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $2,025 +$170 +8%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $201 −$8 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $202 −$162 -80%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag May 30 $200 +$10 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $122 −$120 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $91 +$33 +36%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $201 +$22 +11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $448 −$447 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? May 24 $151 +$5 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $203 +$215 +106%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $161 +$54 +33%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 20 $300 −$15 -5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $236 −$235 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $82 −$37 -45%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend May 20 $46 −$8 -17%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? May 20 $38 −$7 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $20 +$7 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $243 −$190 -78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $30 +$15 +52%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty May 17 $575 −$575 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League M May 17 $473 +$193 +41%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu May 17 $130 +$36 +28%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu May 16 $209 +$64 +31%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Dut May 16 $51 −$42 -82%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? May 16 $267 +$148 +56%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $112 −$109 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $220 −$214 -97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $315 −$308 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Project Notorious (BO5) - Call of May 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 15 $151 −$44 -29%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $209 −$199 -95%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $331 +$35 +10%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $201 +$27 +13%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $330 +$350 +106%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty May 10 $211 −$189 -90%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $131 +$30 +23%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut May 10 $58 +$4 +7%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? May 10 $200 −$55 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY OpTic Texas 87¢ $675 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $675 2d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 65¢ $368 7d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L SELL OpTic Texas 100¢ $367 7d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY OpTic Texas 96¢ $82 7d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY OpTic Texas 71¢ $202 7d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu BUY OpTic Texas 77¢ $201 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $203 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 71¢ $63 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 51¢ $10 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 51¢ $10 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 51¢ $20 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 51¢ $20 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $10 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 56¢ $20 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 60¢ $20 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 56¢ $10 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $10 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 65¢ $194 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $89 9d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $51 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 12¢ $31 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 19¢ $102 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 28¢ $102 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 28¢ $204 15d
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? SELL Avengers: Doomsday 88¢ $534 15d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 18¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,460.65 · official $2,460.65 (match) · 2838 history records