Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8acc…ae63 other 17 markets active 10h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-23%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$6
sports 28% −$9
world 22% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 47% -32.6%
≤30d 17 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 47% -32.6%
≤90d 17 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 47% -32.6%
all 17 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 47% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 47% -32.6%
10% -28.1% 47% -39.0%
15% -35.0% 41% -44.9%
20% -41.4% 29% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +167%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 50¢ $3 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 42h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records