Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8acc…cc29 sports 1203 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,028 (+3%) realized +$1,950 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%664W / 507L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$432est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$929
14 days−$1,782
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$27
other 48% +$1,522
world 1% +$285
crypto 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +16.6% +5.5% 47% 43% -18.4%
≤30d 311 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 51% -11.3%
≤90d 1171 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 55% -7.1%
all 1171 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 55% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 53% -16.0%
15% -19.9% 47% -24.1%
20% -27.7% 38% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$47 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2,448
Realized+$1,950
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses664 / 507
Est. fees paid−$432
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1171 / 1203
History coverage72d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $277 $279 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 72¢ $209 $261 +$52 (+25%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 69¢ $256 $250 −$5 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $176 $182 +$5 (+3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $169 $171 +$2 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $50 $73 +$24 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 79¢ $44 $63 +$20 (+45%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 78¢ $58 $63 +$4 (+8%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $68 $57 −$11 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $63 $56 −$8 (-12%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 64¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+6%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $30 $43 +$14 (+46%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 44¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+48%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 42¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $26 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $175 +$185 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 +$107 +104%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $214 +$88 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $121 +$142 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $157 −$155 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $300 −$299 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $381 −$21 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $133 +$227 +170%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 −$108 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $173 +$187 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $488 −$128 -26%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $188 +$66 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 +$223 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $346 +$14 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 +$327 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $86 +$274 +317%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $88 +$100 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $241 +$119 +49%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $342 +$18 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $279 −$277 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $290 +$70 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $268 +$92 +34%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 +$133 +124%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $166 +$74 +45%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $187 +$53 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$38 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $258 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $179 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $175 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $172 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $157 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $300 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $48 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $24 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $145 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $4 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $99 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $211 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $279 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $179 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $198 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $150 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $110 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $90 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $133 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $155 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $119 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $85 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $14 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,448.42 · official $2,448.46 (match) · 2750 history records