Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8acb…d5de world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$5
other 11% −$1
sports 1% +$1
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 53% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 53% 0% -9.1%
all 23 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage492d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $6 $0 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $56 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $99 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $33 +$2 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 20 $4 $0 +2%
FC Midtjylland vs. Real Sociedad Mar 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $56 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $56 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $6 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $56 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $56 32h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $51 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $48 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $48 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $51 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $51 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $27 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $17 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records