Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8acb…6ddc world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$8
other 20% −$20
politics 14% +$2
sports 11% +$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 35 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 0% -9.2%
all 47 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 13% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 13% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 11% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage527d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $119 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $119 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $125 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $110 −$3 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $75 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $25 $0 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $373 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-15? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
South Dakota vs. South Dakota Feb 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Liberty vs. New Mexico State Feb 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Robert Morris vs. Cleveland State Feb 13 $2 +$3 +186%
Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? Feb 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Wednesday? Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration? Feb 05 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the match between Maccabi TLV and FC Porto end in a draw? Feb 05 $6 +$1 +27%
Will the match between RB Leipzig and Sporting CP end in a draw? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Feb 05 $4 +$10 +233%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 22 $1 +$2 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $45 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $10 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $2 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $12 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $46 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $37 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records