Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

8A 0x8acb…4fa9 other 4 markets active 4h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$21 (-8%) realized −$29 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-57.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-52.9%	-57.4%	0%	0%	-57.4%
≤30d	1	-52.9%	-57.4%	0%	0%	-57.4%
≤90d	1	-52.9%	-57.4%	0%	0%	-57.4%
all	1	-52.9%	-57.4%	0%	0%	-57.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.4%	0%	-57.4%
10%	-61.5%	0%	-61.5%
15%	-65.2%	0%	-65.2%
20%	-68.6%	0%	-68.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -53% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$54 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized−$29

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage18d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$50	$58	+$8 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$103	−$54	-53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	3h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$49	3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.48 · official $158.48 (match) · 23 history records