Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ac9…92d3 sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,138 (-2%) realized −$383 · open −$755
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%53W / 101L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,064
7 days+$1,755
14 days+$1,755
30 days+$1,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$330
sports 30% +$351
other 20% +$330
world 3% −$786
finance 2% −$700
politics 1% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 40% +22.5%
≤30d 25 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 40% +22.5%
≤90d 96 -10.5% -19.0% 34% 34% -19.5%
all 154 +0.3% -9.2% 34% 34% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 34% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 34% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 34% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 34% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$247 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,559
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$755
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses53 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions15
Markets (closed)154 / 169
History coverage227d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Over 22¢ 20¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $201 $167 −$33 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 3¢ $100 $46 −$54 (-54%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $58 $36 −$22 (-38%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $419 $21 −$398 (-95%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 18¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Austria 10¢ 1¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $97 $4 −$93 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $315 +$303 +96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$255 +250%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$320 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 +$155 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $616 +$1,296 +210%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$543 +107%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $224 +$403 +180%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $355 −$347 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $509 −$470 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $293 +$175 +60%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $630 +$496 +79%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $320 +$288 +90%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $528 −$280 -53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 29 $200 +$174 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 29 $1,829 −$1,806 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 29 $600 +$872 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 29 $500 −$495 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 29 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 29 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 29 $300 +$289 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 29 $700 −$393 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$99 -99%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $1,256 −$765 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 29 $772 +$1,068 +138%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 29 $2,100 −$2,088 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 29 $1,689 −$1,665 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 29 $900 +$789 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $221 −$218 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 29 $800 −$789 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 29 $600 −$593 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 29 $600 −$593 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 29 $640 −$633 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 29 $801 +$643 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 29 $400 −$399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 29 $332 −$330 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $407 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $593 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $103 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $103 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $206 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $102 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $102 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $102 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $406 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $205 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 34¢ $102 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $122 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 9h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $355 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $409 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 3¢ $39 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $509 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,559.37 · official $1,559.90 (match) · 478 history records