Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8ac8…986f sports 39 markets active 10h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,729 (-11%) realized −$13,837 · open −$892
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,555per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$801est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$23,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20,998
7 days−$12,590
14 days−$12,590
30 days−$12,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,324
other 28% −$7,158
world 4% −$5,000
crypto 1% −$1,763
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 56% -19.8%
≤30d 32 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 56% -19.8%
≤90d 33 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 55% -21.0%
all 33 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 55% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 55% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 42% -28.6%
15% -33.3% 42% -35.5%
20% -39.8% 27% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$5,028) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,690 vs −$2,985 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$23,682
Realized−$13,837
Unrealized−$892
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$801
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3,555
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $7,728 $7,773 +$45 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $7,334 $5,787 −$1,547 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,228 $3,844 −$384 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2,800 $3,560 +$760 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,184 $2,373 +$189 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $346 +$46 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,018 +$686 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,025 +$1,388 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $909 +$454 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,000 +$1,940 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7,054 −$7,000 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,069 −$5,000 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5,069 +$4,166 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,102 −$10,000 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,027 +$1,280 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,050 +$2,443 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,028 +$1,092 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3,030 +$1,417 +47%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10,061 −$10,000 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,028 +$1,745 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,021 +$2,423 +237%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,016 −$2,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,025 +$1,119 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5,060 +$3,229 +64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $13,066 +$2,623 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,031 +$1,539 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6,997 +$1,293 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $505 −$168 -33%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 15? May 14 $1,764 −$1,763 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,704 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,413 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4,018 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2,025 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $3,000 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $909 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $7,054 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $9,235 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10,102 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,033 36h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 36h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $103 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5,069 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3,027 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5,075 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $0 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $5,050 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $4,447 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $426 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5,694 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $10,061 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $5,028 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $3,030 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,445 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,007 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,682.01 · official $23,682.01 (match) · 126 history records