Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ac6…66b2 crypto 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,864 (-9%) realized −$2,288 · open −$576
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%119W / 100L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$211
14 days−$211
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$5,359
other 24% +$2,804
finance 4% +$148
culture 3% −$611
world 2% +$26
politics 2% −$9
sports 2% −$130
tech 0% −$10
economics 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.8% -30.1% 36% 36% -41.4%
≤30d 11 -22.8% -30.1% 36% 36% -41.4%
≤90d 53 -3.7% -12.8% 57% 53% -14.1%
all 219 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 50% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 50% -16.5%
10% -26.3% 45% -24.5%
15% -33.5% 35% -31.8%
20% -40.0% 25% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$112 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized−$2,288
Unrealized−$576
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses119 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)219 / 224
History coverage352d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 23¢ $654 $268 −$386 (-59%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 20¢ $281 $93 −$188 (-67%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 +$2 +96%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $8 +$2 +30%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $108 −$18 -17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $42 −$3 -6%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $96 −$84 -88%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $59 +$41 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $101 +$24 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 −$13 -76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $24 −$20 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 05 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 05 $34 +$26 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 12 $49 −$47 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 12 $100 −$47 -47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12? Apr 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $40 +$21 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 10 $154 +$17 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 08 $107 +$61 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $91 +$8 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $144 +$53 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 07 $67 +$31 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 5? Apr 07 $110 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 04 $46 +$47 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 04 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 04 $9 +$9 +109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Apr 04 $53 −$10 -19%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 02 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $51 +$43 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $118 +$101 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 31 $50 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 31 $44 +$16 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 29 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $175 +$67 +38%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $76 +$80 +106%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 29 $89 +$3 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 28 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 28 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 28 $75 +$24 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $72 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $2 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $5 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $3 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $2 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 40¢ $39 13h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $6 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $16 14h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $11 14h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $7 14h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $1 14h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $7 14h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 15h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 15h
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $108 16h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes $12 38h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 39h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $124 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $17 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $3 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $4 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $6 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $14 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $13 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.50 · official $582.51 (match) · 1040 history records