Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ac3…56c9 other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$713 (-1%) realized −$741 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate69%42W / 19L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$106
14 days+$217
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$33
other 27% −$777
politics 12% −$54
crypto 1% +$9
culture 1% +$120
world 1% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -37.9% -43.8% 57% 29% -5.2%
≤30d 11 -27.2% -34.1% 64% 36% -3.5%
≤90d 17 -10.3% -18.8% 76% 41% -1.7%
all 61 -10.8% -19.3% 69% 26% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 26% -11.5%
10% -27.0% 15% -20.0%
15% -34.1% 7% -27.7%
20% -40.5% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$180 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$741
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses42 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage234d
Avg bet$818
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $300 $328 +$28 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,723 +$190 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $301 −$248 -82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,102 +$51 +2%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,803 +$119 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $201 +$29 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,622 −$15 -1%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 07 $367 +$126 +34%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? May 26 $135 +$12 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 26 $162 +$38 +24%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 29 $200 +$18 +9%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 29 $365 +$135 +37%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 29 $1,083 +$16 +2%
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Mar 25 $144 +$56 +39%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 21 $380 +$120 +32%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 21 $1,269 +$80 +6%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 13 $500 +$7 +1%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 13 $500 +$10 +2%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 13 $960 +$40 +4%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Mar 10 $304 −$304 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 09 $584 −$584 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $466 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 08 $230 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 08 $29 +$10 +36%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 17 $55 +$2 +3%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 17 $1,841 +$169 +9%
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 17 $2,168 +$4 +0%
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? Jan 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $7 $0 +1%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $200 +$1 +1%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $200 +$3 +2%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $1,079 +$62 +6%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch? Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win? Nov 24 $110 −$102 -93%
Will India win? Nov 15 $110 −$100 -91%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Cambodia end in a draw? Nov 14 $458 +$12 +3%
Will Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan end in a draw? Nov 13 $12,062 −$30 -0%
Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $11,506 +$584 +5%
Athletic Club vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Nov 09 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $159 −$159 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 21m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,913 50m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $51 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $300 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $61 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,001 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Curaçao $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,803 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $201 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $5 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $10 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 95¢ $1,784 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $101 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $101 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $101 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $402 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.97 · official $357.97 (match) · 270 history records