Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8A 0x8ac2…7b23 crypto 133 markets active 2d ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37,448 (+514%) realized +$37,448 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +128% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +106% what you keep after slip
Net edge+106%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate97%129W / 4L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$4,047
other 10% +$25,419
tech 8% +$13,254
finance 7% +$2,821
crypto 2% +$1
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+106.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 60 +40.0% +26.7% 98% 5% +330.9%
all 133 +127.7% +106.0% 97% 11% +220.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +106.0% 11% +220.0%
10% +86.3% 10% +189.4%
15% +68.3% 8% +161.5%
20% +51.8% 8% +135.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +437% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +128% · $-wt +523% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +221% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$1,240 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.55 per $1 lost it wins $8.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37,448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses129 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage175d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 7? May 19 $23 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 27? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C or below on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 27? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on Apri Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 15? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 15? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 21? Apr 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 16? Apr 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15? Apr 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 100¢ $24 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 26d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 7? BUY No 99¢ $23 40d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 45d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C or below on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $1 50d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 27? BUY No 98¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27? BUY No 97¢ $2 50d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $18 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 60d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 60d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 60d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 60d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records