Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ac1…ad72 other 10 markets active 19h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$3
crypto 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
all 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -12.2%
10% -20.6% 0% -20.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 21h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 40h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.50 · official $236.50 (match) · 16 history records