Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8abf…db1f crypto 936 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-4%) realized −$233 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%578W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$13
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +2.0% -7.7% 68% 68% -7.0%
≤30d 560 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 66% -11.3%
≤90d 935 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 57% -14.6%
all 935 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 57% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 57% -14.6%
10% -23.3% 52% -22.7%
15% -30.7% 39% -30.2%
20% -37.5% 24% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses578 / 357
Open positions1
Markets (closed)935 / 936
History coverage85d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 0¢ 62¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.18 · official $3.16 · 1740 history records