Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8abf…2cd1
other · 25 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$1,321 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,157 · open +$142
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$692
Realized+$1,157
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage102d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 2 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,041
7 days+$1,154
14 days+$1,154
30 days+$1,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $250 $400 +$150 (+60%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$565 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 −$400 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$472 +93%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $302 +$103 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $714 +$600 +84%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $204 −$14 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 +$128 +42%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 20 $19 −$19 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 19 $36 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch? Mar 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 16 $20 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $23 +$29 +126%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 04 $24 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$57 +569%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% +$635
sports 17% +$653
crypto 6% −$29
finance 1% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $353 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $47 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $257 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $723 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $202 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 36h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $101 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $558 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $153 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 8¢ $72 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 30¢ $190 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $357 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $51 86d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $16 87d
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 87d
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.3% +27.0% 62% 62% +26.0%
≤30d 8 +40.3% +27.0% 62% 62% +26.0%
≤90d 12 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +22.8%
all 23 +40.2% +26.8% 61% 61% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 61% +22.1%
10% +14.7% 57% +10.4%
15% +3.6% 52% -0.2%
20% -6.5% 35% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.02 · official $692.07 (match) · 65 history records