Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8abf…6d69 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,987 (-19%) realized −$1,969 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$1,421
other 30% −$698
world 13% +$31
crypto 13% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 19 -27.5% -34.4% 58% 32% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 32% -28.2%
10% -40.7% 21% -35.0%
15% -46.4% 5% -41.3%
20% -51.6% 0% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$751) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$346 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$882
Realized−$1,969
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage603d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $900 $882 −$18 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? Jan 05 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Jan 05 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jan 05 $1,134 −$836 -74%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 03 $976 +$4 +0%
Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Dec 26 $751 +$224 +30%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Dec 26 $613 +$138 +22%
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? Dec 03 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 28 $599 +$14 +2%
Will Netherlands beat Hungary? Nov 17 $437 +$162 +37%
Will Brentford win on 2024-11-09? Nov 09 $393 +$44 +11%
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? Nov 09 $366 +$28 +8%
Will RB Salzburg beat Feyenoord? Nov 07 $357 +$8 +2%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Nov 04 $307 +$50 +16%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $359 +$112 +31%
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? Nov 01 $889 −$79 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $907 1h
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? BUY Yes 75¢ $152 537d
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $146 538d
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? SELL No 11¢ $146 538d
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $988 538d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $980 538d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $976 542d
Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $751 547d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $751 547d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $613 547d
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? BUY Yes 100¢ $612 572d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? SELL Yes 99¢ $613 575d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? BUY Yes 97¢ $599 580d
Will Netherlands beat Hungary? BUY Yes 73¢ $437 587d
Will Brentford win on 2024-11-09? BUY Yes 90¢ $393 594d
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? BUY No 93¢ $366 596d
Will RB Salzburg beat Feyenoord? SELL Yes 99¢ $366 596d
Will RB Salzburg beat Feyenoord? BUY Yes 97¢ $357 596d
Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $307 600d
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-03? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 601d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $471 601d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 94¢ $67 601d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $292 601d
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? BUY Yes 38¢ $152 601d
Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 64¢ $256 601d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 601d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $64 601d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $64 601d
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? SELL No 72¢ $9 602d
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? SELL No 81¢ $801 602d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $881.76 · official $881.76 (match) · 44 history records