Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8A 0x8abd…a185 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+10%) realized +$104 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$2
weather 31% +$37
politics 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.0% -49.4% 50% 50% -7.6%
≤30d 2 -44.0% -49.4% 50% 50% -7.6%
≤90d 2 -44.0% -49.4% 50% 50% -7.6%
all 2 -44.0% -49.4% 50% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.4% 50% -7.6%
10% -54.2% 0% -16.5%
15% -58.6% 0% -24.6%
20% -62.7% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$30 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage5d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 77¢ 76¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $312 +$37 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.05 · official $298.05 (match) · 9 history records