Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aba…68bd sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$74 (+18%) realized +$55 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$46
crypto 17% +$13
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 31 -68.0% -71.0% 16% 16% -71.6%
all 40 -8.4% -17.2% 35% 35% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 35% +3.4%
10% -25.1% 35% -6.5%
15% -32.3% 35% -15.6%
20% -39.0% 30% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage147d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $7 +$11 +163%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 06 $10 −$10 -97%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 21 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 20 $9 +$10 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 20 $4 +$2 +59%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 20 $3 −$2 -70%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 19? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 20 $50 +$29 +59%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 19 $30 +$46 +154%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Feb 19 $10 +$16 +158%
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Feb 19 $50 +$20 +41%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 19 $13 +$11 +82%
Pepperdine Waves vs. Portland Pilots Feb 19 $15 +$39 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$3 +70%
Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Feb 19 $4 +$32 +800%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 19 $2 +$3 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $14 1h
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Kings 21¢ $20 51d
Blues vs. Avalanche SELL Blues 100¢ $18 69d
Blues vs. Avalanche BUY Blues 38¢ $7 70d
Clippers vs. Kings BUY Kings 3¢ $1 70d
Lakers vs. Mavericks BUY Lakers 16¢ $2 70d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 13¢ $10 70d
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY High Point Panthers 30¢ $16 85d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 86d
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Furman Paladins 5¢ $2 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 86d
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 86d
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 86d
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats BUY Santa Clara Broncos 40¢ $7 86d
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers BUY Miami (OH) RedHawks 18¢ $3 86d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY B8 10¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 86d
76ers vs. Kings BUY Kings 20¢ $2 86d
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs BUY Kennesaw State Owls 12¢ $5 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.26 · official $17.29 (match) · 92 history records